Politics with Michelle Grattan: pollster Simon Welsh on One Nation’s rise and Victoria’s ‘very messy’ election
Yet another poll and yet another result showing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation ahead of Labor at a national level, with the Coalition way behind. The latest Newspoll has confirmed the trend is clear. Labor is becoming increasingly alarmed, while the Coalition has long been in panic. Meanwhile, at a state level, polling by Freshwater for the Herald Sun shows Labor running third in Victoria behind the Coalition and One Nation. Almost two-thirds (62%) of the 1,034 people polled als
New polling indicates Pauline Hanson's One Nation party is outperforming Labor nationally, while the Coalition lags significantly behind. In Victoria, a state election looms with One Nation and the Coalition both polling ahead of Labor. However, Labor's support is concentrated in key suburban areas, potentially offering a path to victory despite current polling numbers. Pollster Simon Welsh predicts the Victorian election will be highly unpredictable and "very, very messy."
Welsh also cautioned against a potential leadership change for the incumbent Victorian Premier, Jacinta Allan, just months before the election. He believes such a move would be perceived negatively by voters, appearing self-serving rather than responsive to public needs, and could inadvertently benefit rival parties like One Nation and the Liberals.
The upcoming Victorian election is significant as it will serve as a key indicator of One Nation's growing influence and its potential impact on the broader Australian political landscape.
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