China’s zero-tariff ‘gift’ to Africa could be a Trojan horse in disguise

China’s zero tariffs for the next two years to African countries that support the Chinese dragon’s one-China policy provide the continent the opportunity to diversify and add value to its export products off the back of a growing China, or worse, to continue to export raw materials to the Asian giant and therefore remain stuck in the post-colonial raw material exporting trap.

Professor William Gumede is the Founder of the Democracy Works Foundation and author of the bestselling Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg).

China’s zero-tariffs policy, which is to last for two years, came into effect on 1 May 2026.

China’s zero rate could offer African countries the opportunity to industrialise on the back of access to China’s market, its technology and its low-cost long-term financing, in a similar way to how China fuelled its rapid industrialisation by producing goods for Western countries.

Africa’s development failure has been that in the post-colonial period African countries did not industrialise on the back of their trade with their more industrialised trade partners or former colonial powers, as China industrialised on the back of trading with industrial countries.

African countries continued to export raw materials to their partners and former colonial powers, but without processing these it meant that the countries did not industrialise, and in many cases even de-industrialised further.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development’s Economic Development in Africa Report 2024 data showed that primary goods accounted for 76.8% of Africa’s commercial exports in 2024.

African countries hoping they can export raw materials such as agricultural products and minerals to China in the long term will make a strategic blunder. China has adopted a new ambitious 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) whereby it aims to decouple the country from agricultural imports and become a self-sufficient agriculture producer.

China is also increasingly stockpiling critical minerals, or through technology producing alternatives to key minerals produced by Africa, for example laboratory-manufactured diamonds. This means that African countries should view China’s zero-tariff policies as short term, and therefore African countries must aggressively diversify their trading partners beyond China.

African countries will only benefit from China’s zero tariffs if they specifically leverage China to build manufacturing in African countries, transfer technology and skills, add value to raw materials and secure Chinese financing for industry-relevant infrastructure.