Nevada gubernatorial race shapes up as bellwether for GOP heading into 2028

Nevada’s gubernatorial primary has resulted in a face-off between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic nominee Attorney General Aaron Ford and the race is indicative of whether GOP governors in battleground states can survive while distancing themselves from President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, a dynamic with implications for 2028.

Economic anxiety, conflict overseas, a polarizing mass deportation program and low approval ratings for the president might become headwinds for Lombardo, despite a Republican presidential candidate carrying the state for the first time in two decades in 2024.

Nevada offers a particularly revealing test case: a tourism-heavy economy, a working-class Latino electorate and an expanding bloc of nonpartisan voters. Since Lombardo’s 2022 victory, registered independents have surged in the state.

Las Vegas tourism fell 7.5% last year, while unemployment remains among the nation’s highest.

Asked whether he can guarantee unemployment will fall, Lombardo said in a statement that since he took office, “... Inflation has come down, wages are rising, housing prices are stabilizing, and Nevada leads the nation in post pandemic job creation, as well as both small business and wage growth.”

His supporters have pointed to his work on the state’s education system.

“The governor has worked to bridge the gap in per pupil spending with several billion dollars in funding without raising taxes, as well as open enrollment, more school choice, and accountability reforms,” John Burke, spokesman for a pro-Lombardo PAC, said. “We’re already seeing results, graduation rates are growing and students are getting the resources they need to succeed.”

Ford, who was a single father in college relying on food stamps and Medicaid, said he’s focused on affordability.

“Nevadans … cannot afford a home, they cannot afford health care, they can't afford gas, they can't afford groceries, and it's all this Lombardo-Trump economy doesn't work for the working people, it's working for this billionaire class,” Ford said in an interview with ABC News.

Ford has been endorsed by former Vice President Kamala Harris and Nevada’s Democratic congressional delegation.

“He's battled fentanyl being trafficked across our southern border, gone after fraudulent landlords who are jacking up prices on working families, and won more than $1 billion in settlements from taking on big drug companies,” said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., in a statement to ABC News.

Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff endorsed by Trump, said in a KLAS interview t