After strong onset, southwest monsoon to enter a sluggish phase in Kerala

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The district rainfall forecast on June 9 (Left) and the realised rainfall (right) on June 10

Although a little delayed, Kerala witnessed a characteristically vigorous onset of the southwest monsoon, with heavy rainfall lashing many parts of the State during the first 10 days of June. The rains brought down soaring temperatures and replenished the water bodies across the State. However, active monsoon conditions are expected to weaken in the coming days, with the southwest monsoon likely to enter a relatively dormant phase.

According to meteorologists, the offshore trough and associated vortices, which typically trigger extremely heavy rainfall events, have yet to develop this season. Meanwhile, both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea remain largely calm, with no storm systems forming over the Indian Ocean or the Pacific during the first phase of June. These systems often strengthen monsoon currents, enabling them to penetrate deeper into the southern peninsula and advance northward.

Speaking to The Hindu, Neetha K. Gopal, Director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Thiruvananthapuram, said there are currently no indications of any major weather system developing over the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea before June 20. “As a result, the monsoon is likely to remain sluggish over the next two weeks, though a brief spell of intensified rainfall may occur after June 20,” Ms. Gopal said.

Despite the relatively strong onset rains, the monsoon has not behaved as expected, with no part of Kerala recording rainfall in the ‘extreme’ or ‘very heavy’ categories. Although red and orange alerts were issued for several districts during these days, the State largely has not witnessed the intense downpours that had been forecast.

“While wind speeds remained strong, cloud development and its depth were relatively shallow this time, and even the hill regions did not witness any major heavy spells,” Ms. Gopal said. The monsoon’s unusual behaviour could be an early indication of a