SpaceX heads for record $1.78tn float amid fears it is overvalued

Analysts say IPO that could make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire has a ‘major disconnect’ on price

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is set to launch the biggest stock market float in history amid warnings that it may be overvalued.

The space exploration, satellite broadband and AI company will join the US stock market on Friday at a valuation of $1.78tn, after offering at least $75bn of shares to investors through an initial public offering.

The $75bn share offer is nearly three times the previous record, Saudi Aramco’s $29.4bn offer when it floated in 2019. If the float goes as planned, Musk could make history as the world’s first trillionaire.

However, the investment research group Morningstar has calculated that SpaceX is worth only $63 a share – well below the anticipated IPO price of $135 – and warns there is “a major disconnect between market expectations and underlying fundamentals”.

Michael Field, the chief equity strategist at Morningstar, suggests investors should sit out the IPO and wait for “a more attractive entry point down the line”.

“We believe the business has real strengths, particularly in Starlink, but with so many unknown and untested technologies underpinning much of the valuation price, particularly within the AI business, we think the valuation is extremely speculative,” Field said.

SpaceX, which made a net loss of $4.9bn in 2025, is made up of three businesses: space exploration, including its Falcon and Starship rockets; connectivity, such as its Starlink satellite constellation providing high-speed internet access; and artificial intelligence, though its xAI division.

At $1.78tn, the IPO values SpaceX at roughly 92 times its trailing sales, a very hefty valuation which means investors are wagering that Musk can achieve his ambitious goals for the company – such as orbital datacentres in space, building a base on the moon and cities on other planets, and to “extend the light of consciousness to the stars”.

SpaceX has claimed that Starlink has a total addressable market of $1.6tn; Morningstar estimates the segment’s realistic global opportunity at about $129bn.

Earlier this week, the US senator Elizabeth Warren called for the Securities and Exchange Commission to delay SpaceX’s IPO, owing to concerns about the company’s valuation and corporate governance.

“Given the unprecedented threats to investor protection and market integrity posed by the biggest IPO in history, you must delay any eventual acceleration of the registration statement’s effectiveness accordingly,” Warren wrote to the market regulator on Tuesday.

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