China's Strike Capability in Australia Grows, Warns Report

A new analysis highlights the increasing threat of China's ability to strike targets in Australia. The report notes that China's expanding nuclear-powered submarine fleet and long-range missile capabilities are enhancing this threat. The Lowy Institute paper suggests that China's military modernization could significantly boost its capacity to attack Australia. Key factors include the potential deployment of a new long-range bomber and the establishment of a Pacific military base. By 2035, China's navy is expected to have 25 nuclear-powered attack submarines, up from nine currently. Australia is also acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine through the AUKUS pact. While Australia's distance from China remains a strategic advantage, the report indicates that the threat is becoming more real. China's ability to launch ballistic missiles from the South China Sea and from its territory is expected to increase in the coming years. The expansion of China's submarine fleet, particularly at the Bohai shipyard, is a major concern. The report suggests that China's growing fleet could enable sustained strike operations against Australian targets. The US is also increasing its submarine production, but China's progress remains a significant focus.

The report underscores the evolving strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific, highlighting potential shifts in military capabilities that could impact regional security.