PMD predicts lower rain, higher temps until September

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has extended its forecast for below-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures across most of the country from July to September. The PMD noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase but is expected to turn positive during the season. Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean shows warming trends, suggesting El Niño conditions, which often lead to reduced rainfall in Pakistan. The report suggests that these warming conditions may persist through July–September 2026. A positive IOD phase usually brings slightly more monsoon rain, but its impact may be limited due to late development. The PMD forecasts normal to below-normal rainfall in most regions, with the lowest rainfall in northeastern Punjab. Some areas, like Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir, may see normal to slightly above-normal rain. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal, with the highest departures in northeastern Punjab. Most models predict above-normal temperatures, especially in Punjab and parts of Sindh. The PMD also warns of potential flash floods and landslides in mountainous regions due to near-normal to slightly higher precipitation.

The forecast highlights potential challenges for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness in Pakistan.