Estonia's prime minister confident coalition will not fall before 2027 elections

Prime Minister Kristen Michal said he is confident his team — the Reform Party and Eesti 200 — will remain united and does not take seriously speculation about the governing coalition falling apart or one of its MPs defecting.

On Monday, former finance ministers Aivar Sõerd and Mart Võrklaev, both members of the Reform Party, did not support this year's supplementary budget in the Riigikogu Finance Committee. ERR asked Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) whether this means Estonia effectively has a minority government.

"The answer to the question of whether is very simple — no!" Michal replied.

According to Michal, how Sõerd and Võrklaev vote in the final reading is up to them. He explained that his fellow party members and former finance ministers would like to see a larger improvement in the budget position than the supplementary budget provides.

Michal said that major changes and spending cuts will be made as part of the state budget and the State Budget Strategy, which will be drafted over the summer. In financial terms, he said, the supplementary budget is extremely small in scope.

"When the budget is drawn up in the fall, their support will be there. I think they've already said themselves that they have absolutely no intention of breaking up the coalition."

In light of developments in the Finance Committee, ERR also asked what the prime minister makes of media speculation that has circulated for some time claiming several coalition MPs have already decided to switch parties but are waiting to announce it publicly. As a specific example, they asked whether Michal could rule out Aivar Sõerd joining the Parempoolsed party.

According to Michal, there has been talk since at least the end of 2023 that the governing coalition is about to collapse and that coalition MPs will defect.

"There's more of that spin going around Estonia than just about anything else. So let it circulate, but people get tired of hearing that everything is falling apart."

Michal added that he is completely confident in his team, by which he means both the Reform Party and Eesti 200.

"It's not unprecedented for a country to be governed by a minority government. Estonia has had one before and managed just fine. But I'm confident in my team. Of course, I understand that political rivals have an interest, as summer approaches, in creating uncertainty through editorial offices and spreading these kinds of stories. The goal is very simple — to create the impression that nobody knows what might happen."

Michal said it is natural to criticize the government, but added that t