Africa: Is Africa Becoming a New Arena for Adaptive Drone Warfare?

The spread of Ukrainian technology and expertise could alter the balance between state and non-state armed groups across Africa.

Ukraine has become the world's unofficial laboratory for the adaptation and use of commercial unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, in armed conflicts. Like its adversary, Russia, Ukraine is looking for cheaper alternatives to military-grade drones and draws on civilian knowledge to weaponise hobbyist drones. Chinese-made Mavic drones, for example, retailing at under R80 000 (US$4 910), are part of Ukraine's arsenal.

State militaries and armed groups in Africa appear to be increasingly acquiring Ukrainian know-how. Ukraine has long been among the top 10 weapons suppliers globally, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and has been involved in peacekeeping in Angola, Sierra Leone, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Now Ukraine is fast developing a drone manufacturing and modification industry to supply African clients, ranging from surveillance to longer-range armed drones.

Ghana has expressed an interest in acquiring Ukraine's adapted drones for surveillance along its Sahel borders. In an April Telegram post, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated progress on offering 'drone deals' to African countries. This related to 'production and supply of drones, missiles, shells and other types of equipment,' with the promise to issue export permits speedily.

In South Africa for a June conference on contemporary conflict reporting, Ukrainian journalist Sashko Chubko shed light on how Ukraine's aerial war machine functions. The military has adapted shop-bought drones for use alongside military-grade drones. Civilians add components and enable drones to deliver lethal payloads. They focus on the bodywork 'while the military adds the explosive,' Chubko explains.

Commercial drones used in tandem with Turkish military drones are becoming the mainstay of the Ukrainian military. But it's the commercial drones that have sparked considerable interest because of their low cost and availability.

'In the early 2020s, the Ukrainian military started mounting grenades and [do-it-yourself] explosives onto Chinese Mavic drones and learnt how to trigger the drop-off mechanism [for weapons] by switching on the drone's flashlight,' says Chubko. 'These were adapted and used on a mass scale around 2022, targeting Russian trenches until Russia learned how to use jamming techniques to stop them coming close.'

By 2023, he adds, Ukraine introduced first-person view drones. These stream real-time pictures t