Report: Estonia has missed the drone revolution

Major General (ret.) Veiko-Vello Palm, former commander of the Estonian Defence Forces Division, said that Estonia has missed the drone revolution and is not prepared to counter potential large-scale drone attacks from Russia.

"It is fair to say that we have missed the drone revolution both in military terms and in comprehensive national defense. Our steps have been small and cautious, and their impact and visibility have so far been almost nonexistent," Palm noted in the NGO Põhimõtte Koda report "Development Directions for Estonia's National Defense: Adaptability, Innovation, and Human Capital."

According to Palm, Estonia has not transformed its armed forces or its broader defense system to a degree that reflects an understanding of the ongoing shift, nor is it capable of responding adequately to the extensive changes in the Russian Federation.

"While one may choose not to use drones, countering the enemy's drones is mandatory. According to various estimates, the Russian Federation will produce millions of different types of drones in 2026 — that is, thousands, if not tens of thousands, of lethal drones per day. Our military defense is currently not ready to cope with such masses of Russian drones," Palm said.

Palm pointed out that although counter-drone defense is not solely a technological issue — tactics, unit structures, and training must also change — technology remains at the core of any breakthrough.

"The current situation in Western militaries' counter-drone defense is typical of bystander reactions to a major shift, with two extremes prevailing — either total apathy or unjustified optimism. On the one hand, everyone sees that an affordable, mass-producible solution does not yet exist, but on the other hand, they comfort themselves with the idea that a NATO conflict with Russia would somehow be different and unfold differently," Palm explained.

He emphasized that this is not purely a matter of technological lag, since counter-drone solutions do exist in the West, but often involve a combination of some technological shortcomings and — crucially — a lack of solutions suitable for mass production.

According to Palm, even early-generation products in mass production are inadequate, but the choice is whether to innovate in peacetime or postpone development and attempt it under enemy fire.

Palm added that Estonia's broader national defense system is equally unprepared for counter-drone operations, both in internal security and in ensuring critical services.

"In 2025, the Russian Federation launched about 54,000 Shahed-type attack drones aga