Africa: Will Global Turmoil Push Africa's Leaders to Prioritise Agriculture?

The path to transforming agriculture is clear; the challenge is getting leaders to appreciate the value of agri-prosperity.

The Iran War is the latest in a series of setbacks in Africa's quest to gear up development and achieve prosperity, peace and security. Increased conflict, limited prospects for economic growth, multilateralism under attack, and the United States' (US) retreat from globalisation demand a rethink of the traditional wisdom.

A new playbook is needed, and an African agriculture revolution may hold the key.

Food security on the continent faces dire straits. An International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies report using July 2025 data said up to 307 million (20%) of Africa's population was suffering from hunger. In addition, stunting in children under five stands at 30.7%, making both malnutrition and food insecurity an intergenerational risk in Africa.

The impact of declining global aid and the US' attacks on the multilateral system could exacerbate this grave reality. World Food Programme projections are already devastating. Declining, and sometimes the complete withdrawal, of humanitarian aid, together with rising conflict, forced migration and climate change are now the four drivers of this downward spiral.

Adding to the crisis is the US-Israel war with Iran, which will likely be a severe threat multiplier for African agriculture. The conflict is set to have repercussions in four waves.

The first and most immediate is energy inflation due to the interruption of crude oil and liquified natural gas moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Closely related is the restricted movement of urea and its impact on fertiliser supply. This is a potential disaster for Africa's agriculture, which depends on fertiliser imports, and will strain all levels of farming, from family gardens to high-level commercial farms.

Further, Africa's model for agricultural development, as expressed in the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme, is deeply energy-dependent. Most farming relies heavily on fossil fuels, with diesel dominating. Oil price spikes and declining availability have already become a primary constraint to farming, casting a shadow on Africa's future agricultural prosperity.

The second wave concerns damage to the global trading system. Africa's agricultural imports include cereals (primarily wheat and rice), edible oils, fats, meats, dairy and sugar. Imports are valued at up to US$100 billion a year, and are pivotal to Africa's food security.

The third wave of repercussions from the Middle East conflict is