Ethiopia: Ethiopia Votes Amid Geopolitical Rivalries in Horn of Africa

Ethiopia will hold its seventh national election on June 1, 2026. The vote takes place as Gulf states compete for influence in the region and the rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile intensifies.

Voters in Ethiopia will cast their ballots on June 1, 2026, while the country faces internal security challenges and heightened competition for power in the Horn of Africa. Regional powers like Egypt, the UAE,Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel are pushing for influence in this strategically vital region, already destabilized by Sudan's conflict and disputes over the Red Sea.

Analysts say the rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)continues to shape regional politics, including competing alignments in Sudan's civil war.

Kebour Ghenna, executive director of Initiative Africa and a former opposition candidate, says opposition parties are fragmented and weak as this election approaches.

"The Ethiopian elections unfold less as a genuine democratic contest and more as a mechanism for maintaining state legitimacy in a context of weakened opposition, regional instability, and growing external geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa," he told DW in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital.

The government rejects claims that political space is shrinking. Officials point to reforms by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), such as digital voter registration and new monitoring systems, and say opposition parties are responsible for their own decline.

More than 50 million Ethiopians have registered to vote, according to NEBE. Over 10,400 candidates from various political parties and independent candidates are competing at both the federal and regional levels.

Sudanese officials accused the UAE of launching drone strikes on Khartoum Airport from Ethiopia's Bahir Dar airport. Ethiopia called the claims baseless and accused Sudan of backing armed groups inside Ethiopia.

Sudan has repeatedly accused the UAE of backing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's three-year civil war. Abu Dhabi denies supporting the RSF and says it seeks a negotiated end to the conflict.

Despite regional security featuring prominently in election debates, many Ethiopians remain more concerned about inflation, unemployment, and insecurity.

"Foreign policy issues generally have limited influence on ordinary Ethiopian and African voters compared to immediate socioeconomic realities such as inflation, unemployment, insecurity, corruption, transport costs, and declining living standards," Kebour said.

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