University entry was the hardest it’s ever been this year. Next year will be worse

Getting into university in Sydney next year will be the toughest it’s ever been under a controversial new funding arrangement that critics say will severely limit places in the city, kneecap institutions and fail to increase access for poor students.

The new regime, called managed growth funding, effectively caps the number of domestic students admitted to each university. This means some students will be pushed out of universities in Sydney, leaving them to either study elsewhere or abandon tertiary education.

“Managed growth ... hopes to divert enrolments to less popular universities. It puts system stability above student demand,” said higher-education expert Andrew Norton.

Born of the laudable aim of admitting more disadvantaged students to university, critics say that goal could have been achieved without the massive policy shift that means students – including the newly funded equity cohort – may be unable to study their preferred course at their preferred university because of tightened numbers at some institutions.

“If you’re a young person from a poor family, the bush or the regions, and you get the marks and you’ve got the skills, you will get a Commonwealth-supported place. This is all part of our work to open the doors of our universities wider,” education minister Jason Clare said.

An email from Clare to the nation’s vice-chancellors last year says that the government expects an additional 15,000 Commonwealth-supported places across the country in 2027.

Sceptics say that those extra places may not be available to students where they want to study.

“Restricting student choice between universities will only make it harder to match prospective students with a suitable university and course,” Norton said.

“While the government says it wants to increase the number of university students, the reality is that it is putting new obstacles to study in place.”

This is the situation that arose across Sydney’s major universities this year when the Albanese government soft-launched the policy. It has so far meant universities are scrambling and students are reeling, locked out of their choice in courses despite marks that would have sufficed in the past.

At the University of NSW, the minimum ATAR for a bachelor of arts jumped from 80 to 83, while the ATAR for a bachelor of commerce leapt to 96.

The university said it was forced to decline 1000 prospective students it “would have liked to welcome”, with the smaller cohort causing anxiety for school-leavers and having financial implications for the university.

“The ambition to better fund Austra