DEVELOPMENT FAILURE: Delayed climate adaptation is a false economy SA cannot afford

The imperative to adapt to climate change offers governments a historic opportunity to leapfrog development and financing deficits to upgrade marginalised communities using alternative approaches.

For Dineo, a resident of an informal settlement on the periphery of Johannesburg, the loss of her job last month was not a matter of poor performance, but of infrastructure failure. Expected at her post by 7.30am, she found herself trapped by the geography of fear.

To leave home at 5am in the absolute darkness of a community without streetlights or reliable power is to risk sexual violence. For Dineo, and millions like her, load shedding never truly ended; it simply became a permanent state of exclusion.

Poor and marginalised communities across South Africa also bear the brunt of other infrastructure failures, from water to housing shortages. Where the wealthy can insulate themselves with lithium batteries and private water tanks, the poor remain tethered to failing grids and dry taps.

This failure is not merely a social and governance shame; it is an early warning system for a continent on the front lines of a warming world; and it is likely to cost the South African economy dearly if left unacknowledged.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been unequivocal: Africa is the continent most vulnerable to climate volatility, despite contributing less than 3% of cumulative global carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution.

The scientific consensus, as articulated across the Sixth Assessment Cycle (AR6), establishes that the biophysical sensitivity of the African continent is inextricably linked to its developmental context including the legacy of colonialism; approximately two-thirds of the population live in informal settlements characterised by poor housing, limited access to basic services, and a lack of formal infrastructure, making them uniquely vulnerable to climate volatility.

The devastating floods in Durban in 2022 and 2024 caused by record-breaking rainfall, the deaths in Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe caused by Cyclones Idai and Freddy in 2019 and 2023, and the severe El Niño-induced drought in southern Africa, are just a few examples of how the limits of human and ecological adaptation are being stress-tested in Africa, in real time.

Yet, as global leaders congregate at successive Conference of the Parties (COP) summits to negotiate the parameters of a “just transition”, a glaring imbalance persists: the vast majority of climate-related capital – more than 90% – flows toward mitigation, including activities designed t