Is SA making good on its climate promises? Our sums say ‘yes’ — at least so far

In Part 1 today, we unpack what South Africa is doing to help keep global warming — and the fallout from changing weather patterns — at bay. To make good on its climate promises, South Africa is aiming to pump no more than the equivalent of 420 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the air by 2030 — and according to our sums, it looks like the country is on track. That’s why a loan of about R3.8 billion (about €200million/R62bn) from Germany announced in April is such a boon. The funding is part of the Just Energy Transition Partnership , which is meant to help South Africa switch to renewable energy sources like solar and wind power — something that is especially important seeing that coal-fired power stations and cars that run on petrol and diesel account for more than 80% of South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Burning fossil fuels like oil and coal produces gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These form a layer in the Earth’s atmosphere that traps heat from the sun , almost like how a greenhouse holds warmth inside — which is where the term greenhouse gases comes from. If too much of the gases build— as has been happening over the past century — the temperature of the air close to the Earth’s surface can creep up beyond what life on Earth can comfortably handle . Over many years, the warming leads to changes in how much it rains in places, what minimum and maximum daytime temperatures look like and how long dry spells last. In other words, an area’s climate starts to change. Experts predict that climate change will lead to extreme weather events like floods, storms, droughts and heatwaves becoming more intense and unpredictable , which could make it harder for people to stay well or get healthcare when they get sick, affect how people earn their livelihoods and make growing food more difficult. A big survey before the 2024 general elections showed that for 11% of voters climate change — and by implication what politicians would do about it — was one of the top three things they’d think about when deciding who to vote for. And 13 of the 15 parties whose election manifestos Bhekisisa analysed at the time promised to do something about issues linked to climate change. With extreme heat in parts of the Western Cape and heavy rainfall and storms in the northern and eastern parts of South Africa in the first three months of the year, would people again keep the effects of changing weather patterns — and how leaders will deal with the fallout — in mind when they decide how to vote in the upcoming local government elections on November 4 ? We dived into thousands of data points linked to climate change indicators to put together a three-part series of stories to unpack what South Africa is doing to help keep global warming manageable and what the consequences could be of not putting plans in place to deal with extreme weather. In our first story, we look at four questions about where the country stands when it comes to GHG emissions. Here’s what we found out. How much carbon dioxide does SA emit? In 2024, South Africa’s GHG emissions made up 1% of the world’s total. Four other countries — China, the US, India and Russia — together accounted for about half the world’s emissions. *Greenhouse gases are gases like carbon dioxide and methane, which are released from burning fossil fuels, and add to global warming. Although South Africa’s contribution is just 1% of the world total, it’s a massive amount — in fact, the equivalent of about 570 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, international data shows . (Because carbon dioxide isn’t the only type of greenhouse gas, scientists use the term “carbon dioxide equivalents” (CO 2 -eq) as a standard reporting unit in calculations.) That much carbon dioxide is enough to fill 116 million Olympic-sized swimming pools , we calculated — a figure close to double the number of people there are in South Africa. (We used standard conditions of 0°C (273.15 K) and 1 atm pressure in our calculations. It’s important to specify the temperature and pressure when working out the amount of space a gas would take up, because when the pressure increases — in other words, as a gas is compressed — its volume decreases . Similarly, when a gas warms, its volume increases .) Twenty-two other countries, along with the world’s sea and air traffic, join South Africa in emitting about the same amount of carbon dioxide as China does. This means that 29 players (including ships and planes) are responsible for 83% of the world’s total carbon emissions. How much does each person add? The picture looks different when considering a country’s population size. For example, per person, Australia’s carbon emissions are almost 2.5 times that of South Africa, even though each country adds only about 1% to the world’s total. Similarly, when ranked according to total emissions, China is in the top spot a