Why conviction rates still matter in measuring prosecutorial performance

As South Africa’s criminal justice system confronts increasingly complex forms of crime, the debate over how to measure prosecutorial success has gained renewed importance. While conviction rates should be interpreted alongside broader justice indicators, they remain a constitutionally grounded and internationally recognised measure of prosecutorial effectiveness, reflecting the NPA’s ability to secure fair and lawful convictions in a challenging environment.

Bulelwa Makeke is the National Prosecuting Authority’s Head of Communication, and Advocate Sammy Mogoshi is Deputy Director of Public Prosecutions, Specialised Commercial Crimes Unit.

The debate over how to measure prosecutorial success in South Africa has become increasingly prominent in academic and policy discourse.

This critique raises important considerations concerning accountability, fairness and institutional effectiveness. However, it often understates a fundamental constitutional reality: the primary mandate of a prosecuting authority is to prosecute criminal matters successfully, fairly, and in accordance with the law. In this regard, conviction rates remain a legitimate and internationally recognised indicator of prosecutorial effectiveness when properly contextualised within the broader criminal justice environment.

This debate assumed renewed significance following the appointment of the current National Director of Public Prosecutions, Advocate Andy Mothibi, in February 2026, when the NPA was revising its Annual Performance Plan to align with the Medium-Term Development Plan. Outcome three of the Medium-Term Development Plan emphasises the development of a capable, ethical and developmental state, while encouraging greater alignment among institutions within the criminal justice system in pursuit of a common objective: justice for victims of crime.

Within this framework, the relationship between the NPA and the South African Police Service (SAPS) is intrinsically interdependent. Prosecutorial success is inextricably linked to the quality of police investigations, evidentiary gathering, forensic analysis and witness management. Yet it is unrealistic to expect that all crimes committed will be reported, adequately investigated, and successfully prosecuted. Resource constraints, investigative limitations and the complexity of criminal activity render such expectations impracticable in any criminal justice system.

Consequently, conviction rates must be understood within their proper institutional context. They do not measure overall crime levels, policing effectiveness, or reporting