Will Andy Burnham mark a shift in the UK’s Gaza policy?

The Labour Party has the chance to review its policy on Israel, but observers say it will opt for continuity.

British politician Andy Burnham is tipped to become the UK’s next prime minister, after Keir Starmer announced his resignation last week amid intense pressure from his own Labour Party

Burnham, who served as mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017 and won the Makerfield by-election earlier this month, could take the reins of a party that has been haemorrhaging votes, after disastrous local elections in May.

As Burnham promises a leadership challenge to replace Starmer – the most unpopular prime minister since polling began in the late 1970s, he will be forced to consider the party’s stance on Israel and its genocidal war on Gaza.

Patrick Diamond, lecturer in public policy at Queen Mary University of London, UK, said it was too soon to tell whether the party’s foreign policy on Israel will shift dramatically should Burnham become prime minister.

“Burnham would seek to urge all sides in the conflict to get around the negotiating table, and to end the violence as quickly as possible,” Diamond told Al Jazeera. “He will certainly be mindful of the danger of losing voters over the Gaza issue.”

Local elections showed Labour lost more votes to the left-wing Green Party – which views Israel as an “apartheid” state and its military operations in Gaza as “genocide” – than to the far-right, anti-immigration party Reform UK.

Additionally, polling commissioned by Save the Children UK, Christian Aid, and Medical Aid for Palestinians suggested that more than 60 percent of Labour Party members were dissatisfied with the government’s response to Israel, with the majority backing tougher measures, including the suspension of all UK arms exports to Israel.

Nimer Sultany, lecturer in public law at SOAS University of London, UK, said Burham’s overall position has not differed significantly from Starmer’s, with the exception of his call for a ceasefire in Gaza on October 27, 2023, when he broke ranks with the Labour leadership alongside London mayor Sadiq Khan and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.

According to Sultany, Burham will be unlikely to stray far from Labour’s set policies. “We can expect continuity, not a break from current British policy toward Israel,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Having been a regional mayor for the last decade, Burnham hasn’t been heavily involved in foreign policy, so it is difficult to say exactly what his position is,” Diamond said.

Critics have accused him of shifting position when convenient, branding him a “political weathervane