Here’s What the Newly Formed Super El Niño Means for Summer in Your Region
Parts of the U.S. could see increases in certain types of extreme weather. Here's everything you need to know.
El Niño has arrived, which means we’re probably about to see some shifts in North American weather patterns. While the effects of El Niño are most significant in the winter, all that extra heat emanating from the Pacific Ocean can influence summer weather, too.
The stronger the El Niño, the more likely it is to produce wild weather, and this one looks like it’s going to be a doozy. According to the latest update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 63% chance that this El Niño will become “very strong” by November. It’s still developing but strengthening rapidly, with sea surface temperatures jumping from 1.26 degrees Fahrenheit (0.7 degrees Celsius) above average in early June to 1.98 degrees F (1.1 degrees C) above average by mid-June.
So what does this mean for summer weather in the United States? The short answer is: It’s complicated. El Niño impacts vary significantly by region, and the expected outcomes aren’t guaranteed, even during a particularly strong El Niño. With that said, experts pointed to certain trends each region of the U.S. may be more likely to experience this summer, from heightened risk of storms to more severe heat waves.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally recurring climate phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO is the biggest driver of year-to-year climate variability on Earth.
During El Niño, sea surface temperatures rise above average. As the trade winds weaken and warm Pacific water sloshes to the east, increased heat and moisture rise into the atmosphere and alter weather patterns around the globe. Strong El Niños are more likely to shift the Pacific jet stream, which plays a key role in governing temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States.
When the jet stream moves south of its ENSO-neutral position, the southern U.S. typically experiences an amplified storm track and colder, wetter conditions. In the northern half of the country, the weather shifts toward warmer, drier conditions.
These impacts are much more prevalent in winter than in summer, Emily Becker, a research associate professor at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, told Gizmodo. “El Niño and La Niña—either phase—are in the developing stages in the summer, so they peak in early winter,” she explained. “For that reason, and also because North American weather is governed by different processes in the summer versus the winter, we generally don’t really see very distinct impacts regionally the way
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