What the polls reveal about One Nation's growing appeal
The One Nation leader, whose popularity has soared in the past 12 months, would be the first to say she doesn’t put too much stock in the numbers.
One Nation's primary vote continues to climb and now leads against both major parties. (ABC News: Ian Cutmore)
When it comes to reading political polling, it is worth taking a leaf out of Pauline Hanson's book.
The One Nation leader, whose popularity has soared in the past 12 months, would be the first to say she doesn't put too much stock in the numbers.
That's not to suggest the results aren't to be taken seriously, only that a poll can only reveal so much.
Ask Hanson, as this column did late last year, what she made of the polls signalling a One Nation resurgence, and the response was one of sober clarity.
Polling is a useful tool for detecting trends and providing a snapshot of sentiment in a moment of time.
Few, including Hanson, count them as predictors of results, particularly elections that remain years away.
Repeatedly asked about a new Australian Financial Review poll conducted by Redbridge Group/Accent Research that showed One Nation surpassing Labor's national primary vote, Hanson again downplayed its significance during a media blitz on Monday.
"There's an unrest from [the] general public right across the whole country, that people have had enough of the major political parties and they desperately want change."
As Angus Taylor dabbles in culture war concerns, One Nation is encroaching further into the traditional Liberal territory of economics. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
Despite consistently espousing this rather measured view on polling, signs are emerging that Hanson has perhaps begun a rough headcount of the unhatched eggs.
In that same interview, Hanson was happy to lean into reporting she was considering a lower house tilt, something widely viewed as a necessary step for anyone with prime ministerial aspirations.
"I am considering a lower house seat by all means, but nothing is set in concrete, and I haven't made a final decision on it," she said.
"You can be prime minister from the Senate," Hanson continued, emphasising that Australia's constitution did not strictly prohibit that eventuality.
Now, this could be seen as Hanson getting ahead of herself — and just ask Peter Dutton how dangerous it can be if the electorate thinks you're already picking out curtains for The Lodge.
But it might also be an attempt to lay the foundation for her sticking to the (electorally) safer option of the Senate without totally dashing the hopes of her diehard supporters, for whom Hanson is their pick to be PM.
Either way, openly canvassing the possibility of assuming the nation's top job before a single ballot has been cast in the 2028 ele
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