Blue it again: Five graphs that explain another failed Waratahs season

The Waratahs season has ended with a whimper, and without entry into the finals.

It is now over a decade since NSW claimed their only Super Rugby title in 2014, but since those heady days, mediocrity has been the Waratahs’ default setting.

In the 13 seasons since - covering the old Super Rugby, new Super Rugby and the COVID creations in between - the Waratahs have missed the finals nine times. In that period, the Brumbies have missed only three times, for a finals qualification strike rate of 77 per cent.

NSW’s strike rate is 30 per cent. Which is no great shock, given the Tahs produced an overall win rate below 50 per cent in each of those same nine seasons.

So while much has changed at the NSW franchise since 2014, including four different head coaches, the routine at this time of year remains depressingly familiar for loyal fans: trying to figure out what the hell happened … and wondering if things will be better next season.

The plan this year was to build on a 6-8 season in 2025 under new coach Dan McKellar. But in year two, the Tahs went backwards. They finished with one less win.

There were short bursts of optimism, with big wins over the Reds at home, and the Brumbies and Fijian Drua on the road.

But those glimpses of potential were mirages in the desert. The Tahs were well-beaten by all the New Zealand teams, and they dropped four games at Fortress Allianz.

The standard post-mortems and season reviews will be done and data will be pored over. In some areas, the figures will appear to show the Waratahs are a competitive side, able to keep statistical company with teams who are contesting finals.

But in many other areas, the numbers paint a grim and ultimately revealing picture of exactly where the Waratahs fell apart in 2026.

The frustrating yin-yang of the Waratahs season was best seen in their consistent ability to power strongly into the opposition’s 22m - and then mostly do nothing. They were among the best in getting into their rivals’ red zone, with 168 entries into the attacking quarter in 15 games. That was the fourth-highest of all Super Rugby Pacific sides.

But when in the red zone, NSW was the second-worst team in converting those entries into tries. They scored a try 29 per cent of the time. Only the Highlanders (28.6 per cent) were worse.

The Waratahs’ woes were best seen in their must-win game against the Brumbies last month, when they made 19 visits to the redzone (twice the comp average) but scored just 0.7 points per visit. The ACT side made 10 visits, averaged two points per visit and won.

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