Conflict increases food prices in far-flung locations, study finds

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Fighting along key transport routes pushes up food prices in areas far from the conflict itself, according to a new study. Researchers examined the price of maize and other staples during the war in Somalia between government forces and Al-Shabaab, an Islamist terrorist group. They found that although the fighting was concentrated in the southwest of the country, the impact of price rises was felt 900 kilometers (560 miles) away—equivalent to the length of the U.K.

The findings, published in the American Economic Review, suggest aid organizations may need to expand the focus of their efforts to address the ripple effects on households beyond conflict zones.

"The research tells us that the spillover effects of conflict are perhaps worse than previously thought," says Dr. Marco Alfano, associate professor of economics at the University of Southampton, who co-authored the study.

"We've seen in Iran how key transportation routes affect prices at a global scale, but this is felt even more acutely within countries experiencing conflict. When there is a lack of alternative routes, the security of key transportation nodes such as Lower Shebelle in Somalia or the Strait of Hormuz in Iran is crucial to stemming price rises further afield."

The team from the University of Southampton and the University of Essex combined data on maize prices, transit routes and incidents of conflict.

Each attack along a transportation route increased the price of maize in markets by around 0.4%, with prices fluctuating strongly in response to battles or ceasefires. The effects could be seen 14 hours' drive away.

During the height of the insurgency between 2016 and 2018, violent incidents close to transportation roads increased maize prices by around 11% over a sustained period—equivalent to around half the impact of rainfall on maize prices.

Further analysis revealed the attacks over the past 20 years have lowered market access in Somalia by close to 70%, pushing up prices across a wide range of goods by 6% to 11%.

Simulations by the team suggest that providing alternative routes could reduce prices by 5% to 20% if their safety could be upheld. Similar reductions could be achieved by securing existing routes in the Lower Shebelle region of the country.

Marco Alfano et al, Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia, American Economic Review (2026). DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231699

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