A severe El Niño could threaten something essential to half of humanity—rice

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Forecasters expect the El Niño now underway in the tropical Pacific to strengthen into a strong or very strong climate driver later this year.

When an El Niño arrives, it reorganizes rainfall patterns around the world. Parts of the Americas and East Africa tend to get heavier rain, while monsoonal rains in Asia get weaker and drier conditions settle over eastern Australia, Southeast Asia, India and Southern Africa.

More than half the world's population relies on rice. India and China grow more than half of the world's supply, and rice supplies more than half of all daily calories in countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and Cambodia.

Poorer households spend the largest share of income on food, so price spikes hit them first and hardest. In 2007–08, rice prices roughly tripled, food riots broke out in dozens of countries, and in Haiti, the unrest helped bring down the prime minister. Securing rice is about more than food—it underpins public order.

Rice is also a thirsty crop. Most high-yielding varieties are bred for flooded paddies, where water suppresses weeds, supports flowering and grain development, and helps keep plants cool. Hardier upland rice can grow with less water but usually yields less. Hence, breeders want to move the drought tolerance of upland rice into lowland varieties that most farmers actually grow.

If this year's El Niño is severe, it could hit the water supplies of several major producers at once, so shortfalls compound rather than cancel out.

Around three-quarters of the world's rice comes from irrigated lowland paddies. Irrigation buffers rice against patchy rainfall in normal years, but it depends on water sources such as rivers, reservoirs and snowmelt, which El Niño can affect.

Australia shows this clearly. The Riverina region of New South Wales grows some of the most water-efficient rice in the world. But rice competes for water with permanent plantings such as almonds, which must be watered regularly.

In the worst droughts, Australia's rice crop has fallen to a small fraction of normal production.

In 2023, India clamped down on rice exports to protect domestic prices, resulting in a global price surge. But the picture recently reversed. India now has record stocks and is exporting heavily after lifting its bans, easing prices.

This situation is not guaranteed to last. During the 2007–08 rice crisis, export bans and panic buying were the m