How One Nation’s polling surge would reshape Australia’s parliament

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce says he does not want to wipe out the National Party at the next election as new analysis shows the junior Coalition partner could be reduced to a single senator at the expense of the surging populist force.

One Nation’s Senate representation could quadruple, based on current polling, prompting Joyce to caution against mooted plans for leader Pauline Hanson to surrender her safe upper house seat for the lower house.

“I think Pauline has capabilities – let’s make that unequivocal. I premise that on at least she’s run something – a shop. That is better than a lot of other prime ministers have done,” Joyce said when asked if she might run for a seat in the House in the hopes of one day leading the government.

But he warned that any plan to win a lower house seat could backfire if a campaign was too confident.

“If you are being hubristic, [the voters] will deliver you to a very miserable place. Be humble and understand that your political future, if you want to be in the House of Representatives, is not based on your colleagues, but the voters.”

One Nation is on track to become the biggest third party in Senate history at the next election, but would probably fall short of holding the balance of power as Labor and the Greens maintain control over the chamber.

A review of three current polls – including this masthead’s Resolve Political Monitor – by independent election analyst Ben Raue of The Tally Room blog puts One Nation just behind the Coalition in the next Senate, with the party growing from its current four senators to 16. The Coalition would hold 18 seats, down from 27.

Labor would probably remain relatively stable at 28 seats, meaning with the support of a prospective 12 Greens senators, the government could pass legislation without the need for conservatives or independents.

Raue’s calculations assume that One Nation’s vote is spread equally across the states and territories, as detailed state-by-state polling is not yet available.

To win a single seat in the Senate, a candidate needs to collect a “quota” of votes – around 14.3 per cent. Based on current polling, One Nation could win two quotas per state, and in a stretch, three in states such as Queensland, NSW, Western Australia and Tasmania.

In the most recent Resolve Political Monitor One Nation received 24 per cent of the primary vote. In polls published by The Australian Financial Review and The Australian newspapers, the party received between 27 and 31 per cent of the vote.

“The right is doing, probably, overall as a combined unit a little bit better th