TARGET TRAJECTORY: SA is on track to meet its climate promises — for now (Part 1)

With a R3.8-billion boost to help South Africa move away from fossil fuels like oil and coal for producing energy, how well is the country doing on keeping its promise to help the world’s temperature stay at manageable levels? Bhekisisa takes a look at the data.

To make good on its climate promises, South Africa is aiming to pump no more than the equivalent of 420-million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the air by 2030 – and according to our sums, it looks like the country is on track.

That’s why a loan of about R3.8-billion (about €200-million) from Germany announced in April is such a boon.

The funding is part of the Just Energy Transition Partnership, which is meant to help SA switch to renewable energy sources like solar and wind power – something that is especially important seeing that coal-fired power stations and cars that run on petrol and diesel account for more than 80% of SA’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Burning fossil fuels like oil and coal produces gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These form a layer in the Earth’s atmosphere that traps heat from the sun, almost like how a greenhouse holds warmth inside – which is where the term greenhouse gases comes from. If too much of these gases build up — as has been happening over the last century – the temperature of the air close to the Earth’s surface can creep up beyond what life on Earth can comfortably handle.

Over many years, this warming leads to changes in how much it rains in places, what minimum and maximum daytime temperatures look like, and how long dry spells last. In other words, an area’s climate starts to change.

Experts predict that climate change will lead to extreme weather events like floods, storms, droughts and heatwaves becoming more intense and unpredictable, which could make it harder for people to stay well or get healthcare when they get sick, affect how people earn their livelihoods, and make growing food more difficult.

A big survey before the 2024 general elections showed that for 11% of voters climate change – and by implication what politicians would do about it – was one of the top three things they’d think about when deciding who to vote for. And 13 of the 15 parties whose election manifestos Bhekisisa analysed at the time promised to do something about issues linked to climate change.

With extreme heat in parts of the Western Cape and heavy rainfall and storms in the northern and eastern parts of SA in the first three months of the year, will people again keep the effects of changing weather patterns – and how leaders will deal with the fallout – in mi