Murders continue historic decline despite spikes in a few cities, study finds

The national homicide rate in the U.S. continued its historic decline in the first half of 2026, although eight cities — including San Francisco, Dallas, and Norfolk, Virginia — saw spikes compared to the same period in 2025, a new study finds.

The downward trend continues from last year, which saw the largest single year-over-year drop and likely the lowest murder rate in the U.S. since 1900, pending the final FBI crime statistics for the year.

This year, the picture was slightly more nuanced: in 21 of the 30 cities surveyed in 2026, there was an average homicide rate drop of 18% from January to June, according to new data analysis released Thursday by the Council on Criminal Justice, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization.

"Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity," said CCJ president and CEO Adam Gelb.

"Local policies and programs surely matter, but the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well," Gelb said, referring to the ways technology is reshaping our lives and keeping people at home, and a decrease in people abusing alcohol.

The study examined patterns for 13 crime types in 36 cities and found nine crime types dropped in the first half of 2026. Carjackings had the largest drop, while drug offenses saw the largest rise when compared with the first half of 2025, but were still lower than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Aggravated assaults remained about the same, with a 2% drop when compared to the first half of 2025 and a 3% drop when compared to the first half of 2019.

Researchers pointed to a variety of factors behind the continuing drop in homicides, with no single explanation for the trend.

But while the overall rate was down, a CBS News review of the statistics found an unusual mix of cities that saw homicides increase. Four cities surveyed experienced double-digit jumps in murders when compared to the same time period last year.

In San Francisco, homicide rates increased by 55% when compared to the same period in 2025, the study said.

However, the city's police department provided different figures. Evan Sernoffsky, a San Francisco Police spokesperson, told CBS News there have been 16 homicides so far this year. Last year, San Francisco had 13 homicides during the same time period, and ended the year with the lowest homicide rate in over 70 years.

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