Ramaphosa and the ANC’s sinking ship

In the maritime tradition, there is an old saying: “The captain goes down with the ship”, suggesting that, in the event of an emergency at sea, it is the captain who bears the ultimate responsibility to save the ship and those on board or die trying. This metaphor is used in this article to offer a balanced assessment of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reformist ambitions and political shortcomings during his tenure as president of the African National Congress (ANC). Ramaphosa was elected at the ANC’s 54th National Conference in 2017 to become president in what many observers characterised as a significant moment in South Africa’s political history. Just a year before his presidency, in 2016, discussions about state capture emerged across social media and mainstream platforms. “The Capture of the State” became the focal point of debate in South Africa’s political arena. During this period, public trust in the ANC government was declining sharply, with negative consequences for the country’s economic, social and political institutions. Likewise, the ANC found itself deeply embroiled in factional battles that signalled organisational decline, fragmented the tripartite alliance and contributed to the loss of major metropolitan municipalities across the country. While some observers position Ramaphosa as a president who inherited an organisation damaged by the actions of his predecessors and attempted to repair institutional harm, one cannot ignore that his presidency coincided with political fragmentation, governance failure and the accelerated electoral decline of the ANC. At the beginning of his presidency, Ramaphosa entered office as a “renewal figure”, promising to restore credibility to both the state and the party. His promise was the “New Dawn”, which he introduced in 2018 as an era of the rule of law, institutional renewal and transparency. Many observers embraced this vision. The country experienced a period of optimism as many viewed him as an anti-corruption and ethical leader. He also became a favourite among international observers and the business community, who placed their hopes on economic recovery and the restoration of the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA), the South African Revenue Service (Sars) and parts of the judiciary. To some extent, investor confidence improved initially and some argue that sections of the state stabilised under his leadership after a decade of institutional erosion. Despite the prevailing perception that he was a corrective figure, expectations may have exceeded the ANC’s actual capacity for self-reform. Turning to state capture and the limitations of the ANC’s internal renewal, perhaps the greatest contradiction in Ramaphosa’s leadership was his attempt to reform the party through some of the same internal networks implicated in its decline. The findings of the Zondo commission, spanning more than 5 000 pages, were deeply damaging to the ANC, exposing extensive entanglement in corruption. At the same time, commentators and opposition parties criticised the slow pace of accountability within the ANC. The step-aside rule — an internal policy requiring members charged with corruption to recuse themselves voluntarily from party and government responsibilities — created significant tensions. Factional resistance emerged, while those accused of violating the rule frequently argued that it had been weaponised for political purposes. Failure to decisively isolate corruption networks weakened Ramaphosa’s reform credentials and governance energy was consumed by internal battles. Rather than acting decisively when required, he often appeared cautious. Critics argued that he prioritised party unity over organisational renewal. His supporters, however, contended that he lacked sufficient internal support to act more aggressively. Regardless, the ANC increasingly appeared divided, morally compromised and incapable of self-correction. Although Ramaphosa was presented as the ideal candidate to rebuild the economy, his tenure has been characterised by persistent unemployment, with youth unemployment at 59.93%, slow economic growth, the energy crisis, rising living costs and the continuing struggle to reduce inequality and poverty. Additional pressures included the economic fallout from Covid-19, the July 2021 unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng and deteriorating infrastructure and municipal collapse. Although some crises were global in nature and beyond his control, South African voters increasingly judge governments by outcomes rather than inherited conditions. As socio-economic frustration intensified, the ANC’s liberation legitimacy weakened. A more recent controversy is the Phala Phala scandal, which appears to have damaged Ramaphosa’s reputation as an anti-corruption reformer. Despite his claims of innocence, events surrounding the incident on his farm contributed to perceptions