Labor leadership rumblings reignite ahead of winter’s ‘killing season’

Premier Jacinta Allan will walk into her last caucus meeting before the winter break with leadership rumblings surrounding her, as Labor’s struggling popularity continues to spook parts of her caucus.

Allan stared down disaffected MPs in March, describing them as scallywags in need of a cuddle, but her leadership has again become a contentious issue for members of her party fearful of losing their seats in a November state election wipe-out.

The government has endured another difficult week in parliament, marked by a belated commitment to reform the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission, messy negotiations over campaign finance laws, and repeated questioning over character references provided by freshly minted minister Luba Grigorovitch.

It comes as the state enters an unpredictable election season, with Labor facing as serious a challenge from One Nation, as that from its traditional opponents.

The Age spoke to six Labor MPs across the factional divide who, speaking anonymously to avoid repercussions, said leadership speculation was again building and a challenge could take place before the November 28 election.

They pointed to multiple opinion polls showing both Allan’s popularity had cratered and a slump in Labor’s primary vote. A potential flashpoint is whether the next round of polling fuels or eases backbench anxiety.

The Resolve Political Monitor published by The Age will shortly be in the field canvassing voter sentiment. Its most recent published results, from a survey in April, showed that state Labor’s primary vote was 27 per cent, the Coalition 29 per cent and One Nation 21 per cent.

Just 20 per cent of voters listed Allan as preferred premier, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson had the support of 39 per cent. They rest remained undecided.

On Thursday night, as Labor MPs dined at parliament during a break in an all-night debate on donation laws, there were multiple conversations about the government’s chances at November’s election, with reference to the party’s odds on gambling websites.

One MP told The Age that Allan may have shot herself in the foot with her about-face on IBAC’s powers.

“We needed to do something because people won’t stop talking about the $15 billion figure,” they said. “But in acting now, we’ve drawn attention to the issue again.”

Barrister Geoffrey Watson, SC, estimated earlier this year that corruption linked to the CFMEU had cost about $15 billion across the $100 billion Big Build program – a figure Allan and her ministers have repeatedly disputed.

But Labor MPs agree that despite these denia