How Israel’s ‘buffer zone’ plan could redraw the map of southern Lebanon

BEIRUT: Lebanon faces what officials described as “one of the most dangerous moments in recent memory” after Hezbollah launched attacks on Israeli forces from areas both south and north of the Litani River, triggering a renewed Israeli air and ground campaign.

Announcing its ground incursion into southern Lebanon, Israel said it aims to establish what it called a permanent “security zone” along the border.

The exact depth of the proposed zone remains unclear, but its humanitarian cost is already emerging. More than 80 towns and villages have been emptied following successive evacuation orders, forcing tens of thousands of residents to flee north of the Litani River.

Orders to vacate have also reached Beirut’s southern suburbs, where residents have been told to leave their homes and not expect to return until Israel decides the time is right.

The evacuation net has spread wide, reaching villages deep in the south and others pressing against the western Bekaa.

Israeli reports estimate the number of Lebanese who will be forced from their homes at around 350,000 — on top of the roughly 85,000 frontline villagers who never made it back from earlier rounds of displacement.

Recent days have shown that Hezbollah remains active south of the Litani River, most visibly when its fighters engaged an Israeli tank in the border town of Kafr Kila.

The group has also maintained a steady stream of drone and rocket attacks toward Israel’s Upper Galilee from positions north of the river.

The Lebanese Army has redeployed along the border zone it has held since the Nov. 27, 2024, Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, declaring in January that it had successfully cleared more than 90 percent of Hezbollah weapons from the area.

A military source confirmed that Israeli troops had crossed into Lebanon on Tuesday, moving through the towns of Kafr Kila and Khiam, shortly after Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz issued orders to seize additional strategic positions and tighten the grip on southern Lebanon.

The Israeli military called it a “forward defensive measure.”

Statements from Israeli officials and developments on the ground suggest a broader strategy to establish a civilian-free buffer zone along the 120 kilometer border, extending 10 kilometers deep into Lebanese territory.

That translates to roughly 1,200 square kilometers — close to 10 percent of Lebanon’s territory.

The blueprint was already being drafted during the 66-day war of 2024. Israeli forces razed homes in frontline border villages and sprayed chemical agents across farmland, stripping away vegetation that