El Niño warning: Scientists say a major climate threat is approaching — and Southern Africa could feel it first

IOL A rapidly developing El Niño fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific is prompting urgent calls for global and regional preparedness. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event occurring between June and August 2026, with probabilities of it persisting until at least November reaching 90%. What’s even more alarming is that the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) projects an even higher likelihood, assigning a 98% probability of El Niño conditions developing during the May–July 2026 period. Why should you care? These shifting weather patterns are expected to severely influence global temperature and rainfall, increasing the risk of extreme weather events. Temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean are already far hotter than usual, by as much as 6°C, adding fuel to the developing El Niño. UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a global warning, declaring, “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is”. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo echoed Guterres’ warning, urging international coordination and noting that the world needs to “prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean”. We are by no means the exception. In Southern Africa, a region historically vulnerable to El Niño-induced droughts, leaders are moving to protect regional agriculture and food systems. Last week, ministers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) gathered in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, to strategise on climate resilience, fertiliser harmonisation, and transboundary disease control. SADC Deputy Executive Secretary for Regional Integration, Angèle Makombo N’Tumba, noted that expert forecasts indicate a 77% probability that El Niño will affect the Southern African region by late 2026. Stressing the urgency of the situation, she warned, “We must start preparing now for such a possibility,” and directed Member States to utilise the SADC Plant Genetic Resources Centre to proactively breed drought-tolerant crop varieties. South Africa is playing a leading role in these regional preparations. John Steenhuisen, South Africa’s Minister of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the SADC Committee of Ministers responsible for Agriculture, urged member states to fast-track regional frameworks. Steenhuisen emphasised the need to harmonise fertiliser regulations to cut costs and boost resilience, noting that the SADC “can no longer afford delay”. He also called for strict cross-border surveillance and a ‘One Health’ approach to mitigate the spread of animal diseases like Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) during extreme weather disruptions. “Animal diseases do not respect borders,” Steenhuisen noted, adding that “preparedness is always less costly than prolonged outbreaks”. Zimbabwe’s Minister of Agriculture, Dr. Anxious Jongwe Masuka, supported the push for urgency, reminding the region that Southern Africa is predicted to become noticeably drier in the coming decades, making the immediate climate-proofing of agricultural systems essential. In a bid to safeguard against El Niño’s impending agricultural and economic shocks, SADC Ministers have formally recommended several defence mechanisms. These include establishing SADC regional cereal reserves, a regional fertiliser reserve, and joint fertiliser procurement mechanisms to protect import-dependent nations from supply disruptions and global price volatility. Furthermore, ministers have approved a framework to establish a Regional FMD Vaccine Bank to shield the livestock sector, which sustains over 70% of the SADC population The post El Niño warning: Scientists say a major climate threat is approaching — and Southern Africa could feel it first appeared first on NewZimbabwe.com .