Iran stalemate drags on as conflict nears 100-day mark

Vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on June 3.

WASHINGTON – The US and Iran remained at loggerheads over any potential truce heading into the weekend, with the conflict nearing the 100-day mark and Tehran saying that it and Oman have sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Following skirmishes overnight between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, Iran continued to insist on a ceasefire there before reaching a deal with the US.

Meanwhile, a military adviser to Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei told CNN that “the ball is in Trump’s court” when it comes to a deal, insisting on the unfreezing of US$24 billion (S$30 billion) in assets.

US President Donald Trump has insisted for months that Iran is near its breaking point. On June 5, he told reporters that “We’re having great success with Iran,” adding that “they’re in no position to have a nuclear weapon.”

He even downplayed the higher cost of oil, an increase that has helped push up gasoline prices: “People thought it was going to be a lot worse. Today, I looked at US$96 a barrel, people thought that was going to be US$300 a barrel.”

Oil prices fell more than 2 per cent on June 5, with US crude trading near US$90 a barrel on signs that China has curbed consumption and as American crude exports helped to plug some of the lost supplies.

Without a breakthrough, the continuing standoff suggests that Tehran believes it can bear the current level of pressure longer while betting that the political pain in the US may get the American leader to concede on some of his objectives.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier said there had been “no tangible progress” in talks even though the two sides continued to exchange messages via mediators.

No commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz were observed on the morning of June 5, with three passages in each direction seen on June 4, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

US forces have counted nearly 1,000 commercial vessel transits in and out of the Strait of Hormuz in the last two months, according to an official familiar with US Central Command operations.

The figure is still far below the more than 100 ships passing daily through the vital waterway for oil and gas from the Persian Gulf before the conflict.

As the conflict that began Feb 28 nears the 100-day mark, Trump travelled to Wisconsin for a domestic political event after a pair of rebukes by the Republican-led Congress over his foreign policy.

The first was when the House voted to halt the war with Iran, a largely sym