Nigeria: Troubling Silence Before the 2027 Polls

Iyobosa Uwugiaren writes that the current atmosphere in Nigeria doesn't signal a nation that is gearing up for general elections--a defining democratic exercise.

0rdinarily, a few months before a general election, the country's political space should be awash with political activities: debates, policy conversations, voter education campaigns, party mobilisation, and visible preparations by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The atmosphere should signal a nation gearing up for a defining democratic exercise.

However, there is a growing sense of uncertainty and unease. Beyond the routine political statements and partisan rhetoric by political actors and political parties, there appears to be little evidence of the level of preparedness expected ahead of an election that will determine the future of over 250 million citizens.

This perception may not entirely reflect reality. Electoral preparations may indeed be taking place behind the scenes. Political parties may be quietly strategizing and plotting, while the electoral body may be implementing operational plans away from public attention. However, democracy thrives not only on processes but also on public confidence. And confidence is precisely what appears to be in short supply currently.

To be sure, several factors are fueling public scepticism: growing and persistent insecurity across many parts of the country, doubts about the credibility and independence of the electoral management body, the near absence of internal democracy within political parties, voter apathy, economic hardship, and a widening trust deficit between citizens and government and political institutions. Together, these issues raise important questions about Nigeria's readiness for another electoral cycle.

The implications for elections are profound. Citizens who fear for their safety are not likely to participate in political activities, attend campaigns, or vote on election day. Electoral officials may find it difficult to deploy personnel and materials to volatile areas. Political parties may be unable to campaign freely in certain states. Most importantly, insecurity creates conditions in which voter suppression can occur, either deliberately or indirectly--thereby creating room for massive rigging of elections.

No doubt, Nigeria has faced security challenges during previous elections, especially since 1999; but the scale and complexity of current threats make the situation particularly concerning. The question is not simply whether elections can be held, but whether they can be conducted in a manner that