Zambia: Elections 2026 - Is Zambia's Democratic Success Story Beginning to Fray?

There is a danger that voters see the August election outcome as shaped by legal manoeuvring rather than the ballot.

Zambia is one of the few African countries to have experienced peaceful transfers of power between multiple political parties. But its sound democratic record - particularly the Electoral Commission of Zambia's (ECZ) technical capacity - will be tested during the upcoming general elections on 13 August.

According to the 2025 Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index, Zambia ranks among Africa's top 10 democracies but remains a 'hybrid regime' because of its persistent governance constraints. The credibility of the 2026 polls will depend less on whether democratic institutions are in place, and more on their performance in a charged political climate.

The ECZ has registered a record 26 presidential candidates (14 of whom are approved), including incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema, who is seeking a second term after being elected in 2021. The high number of candidates reflects both an open electoral space and serious opposition fragmentation.

Leadership wrangles and alleged executive interference in the Registrar of Societies - which registers and regulates all professional societies and political parties - have spawned many short-lived alliances and parties. These weaken the chances of an opposition candidate securing the 50%+1 threshold, despite late-stage coalitions.

Roughly 8.7 million of Zambia's over 21 million citizens have registered to vote, suggesting a high voter turnout. An Afrobarometer survey reveals that 86% of Zambians believe elections are the best way to choose political leaders, underscoring the importance of public trust in electoral institutions and procedures.

However, electoral competition is unfolding amid fierce political divisions. Disputes such as the ongoing burial controversy surrounding former president Edgar Lungu dominate the political discourse.

But voters are more likely to prioritise social and economic concerns such as the rising cost of living (despite reduced inflation and improved GDP growth), unemployment and unreliable electricity supply. In 2024, approximately 72% of citizens reportedly had either no or irregular access to electricity. These trends suggest that economic grievances will outweigh elite political disputes in shaping voter behaviour.

Another contentious issue is the raft of major constitutional and legislative reforms introduced just 12 months before the polls. The Constitutional Amendment Act No 13 of 2025 faced strong public opposition and judicial scrutiny. After being c