Extreme heat tests India's record milk production

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During a summer of extreme heat with temperature topping 40°C last year, much like northern India is currently experiencing, dairy farmer ​Neeraj Bharadwaj watched one of his cows deliver a calf months early.

The newborn was tiny and almost hairless. People said it would not survive, but Bharadwaj bottle fed it ‌milk until it slowly recovered.

Scientists say such premature births are part of a wider pattern of increasingly intense summers linked to ​climate change.

Bharadwaj’s small farm of six cows near Delhi is typical of millions in India, the world’s biggest dairy producer responsible for nearly ⁠a quarter of global supply, where most milk comes from farms with between two and five animals.

Heat, humidity of India's monsoon could extend summer heat stress as climate warms: study

The dairy sector accounts for roughly 5% of India’s GDP and supports more than 80 million farmers. Rising incomes and population levels mean demand for dairy is set to grow — the government estimates it could nearly double by 2050.

But extreme heat means cows ‌eat less, make less milk, struggle to conceive and produce fewer live offspring, experts say, while farmers spend more trying to keep animals cool and fertile.

“Milk production falls by nearly 30% during extreme heat,” Bharadwaj said, describing how falling output and rising cooling costs were steadily ‌eating into his earnings.

For decades, rising milk output was one of India’s biggest agricultural success stories, driven by crossbreeding programmes designed to increase productivity ‌and ⁠meet growing urban demand.

India’s milk production reached a record 239 million tonnes in the 2023-24 fiscal year, up nearly 64% in ⁠a decade, according to government data.

But researchers, dairy experts and farmers say rising heat is quietly exposing the vulnerabilities of that model.

Scientists at the National Dairy Research Institute (NDRI) said heat stress reduces feed int